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By PASCAL FINETTE

The Heretic is a free bi-weekly dispatch delivering insights into leadership in exponential times. For entrepreneurs, corporate irritants and change makers. Raw, unfiltered and opinionated.

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Nov 23rd, 2014

Probability Analysis

When we lived in London my daily routine was to do a quick rain check: How likely is it that it will rain today? Based on this probability analysis I would pack an umbrella (in case of certain rain), a light rain coat (in case of a chance of rain) or brave the elements (if, for once, it wouldn’t rain).

Life as an entrepreneur is all about probability analysis. At every juncture on your path to success, with every decision you make, you do a quick (and sometimes extensive) probability analysis in your head. What’s important to note is that all too often we are doing this unconsciously — which can lead to subpar results.

Next time you have to make a decision — be aware that seldom a result is black or white; more often the positive (and negative outcome) have a certain probability attached to them. Figure out what this probability is and you will be much more effective in your decision making.


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